
Featured image: AI-generated explanatory illustration of rainfall in South Texas; not an actual weather photograph or forecast map.
The National Weather Service in Brownsville said in a forecast issued late November 7 that a flood watch remained in effect for Starr, Zapata, Brooks and Jim Hogg counties in South Texas through Monday morning, November 9. Forecasters cited the potential for localized flooding and flash floods from Sunday into Monday morning.
The forecast discussion, issued at 11:14 p.m. Central Standard Time, called for 1–3 inches of rain across Deep South Texas on Sunday, November 8, with isolated pockets of 4–5 inches possible, primarily in the western part of the office’s forecast area. Widespread showers were expected, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
In its 3 a.m. Eastern Standard Time outlook on November 8, the NWS Weather Prediction Center said an upper-level low interacting with moisture from the Gulf was already triggering showers and thunderstorms from the Rio Grande Valley into central Texas early Sunday. The center expected the main heavy-rain threat to focus on southern Texas through Sunday night before gradually easing during the day Monday.

Both forecast offices placed the southern Texas rainfall threat in the Slight Risk category, the second level on the four-tier excessive-rainfall scale, for Sunday. The Weather Prediction Center said several inches of rain would increase the threat of scattered flash flooding. The Brownsville office highlighted an increasing potential for localized flooding in the northern ranchlands, especially Sunday night. The flood watch describes the potential for flooding rather than a finding that flooding has already occurred.
Brownsville forecasters expected another 1–3 inches of rain on Monday, with the heaviest rain rates most likely in the morning and the greatest amounts generally along and west of Interstate 69C. Showers were forecast to shift east during Monday, with rain chances decreasing Monday night. The office placed Deep South Texas in the Marginal Risk category, the first level on the four-tier excessive-rainfall scale, for Monday.