NOAA Says El Niño Is Strengthening, With Strong Conditions Likely Into Early 2027
Smartor 편집팀
November 13, 2026
Featured image: AI-generated explanatory illustration symbolizing warming in the equatorial Pacific, not an actual observation or weather forecast map.
El Niño is continuing to strengthen in the equatorial Pacific, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly assessment issued November 12. The center maintained an El Niño Advisory and put the probability of strong-to-very strong conditions continuing through January–March 2027 at more than 79%.
Areas of the eastern equatorial Pacific with sea surface temperatures more than 4.0 degrees Celsius above average expanded westward compared with the previous month, the center said. The temperature anomaly reached +2.5°C in the Niño-3.4 monitoring region, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions registered +3.6°C and +4.4°C, respectively.
Heat below the surface also remained well above average. Temperature anomalies exceeded +10°C at depth in parts of the eastern Pacific. Winds and rainfall along the equator likewise showed the continuing coupled ocean-atmosphere changes associated with El Niño, according to the assessment.
About a 60% chance of historic strength
The CPC outlook, which combines multiple prediction models from North America and elsewhere, projects further strengthening before El Niño begins to weaken in early 2027. It gives about a 60% chance of a historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 during each of the October–December and November–January periods. The benchmark cited in the assessment is a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, value of +2.5°C or higher.
That forecast does not establish that an all-time record has already been set. It concerns a projected three-month index, distinct from the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly reported above. The center also said that even a very strong El Niño raises the likelihood of its typical impacts without guaranteeing particular weather outcomes.
Different expectations for California’s winter rainfall
SFGATE reported November 12 that El Niño generally shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, increasing the odds of a wetter winter in Southern California. In comments to the publication, CPC physical scientist Michelle L’Heureux said a small difference between an index value just below or just above a record would mean little for subsequent effects over North America.
The Los Angeles Times reported November 13 that experts still differed over the likely strength of winter storms. Robbie Munroe, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, cited an official forecast giving Southern California a 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation in January–March. University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain, meanwhile, emphasized the possibility of much heavier rainfall based on a European prediction model.
Those regional rainfall projections are separate from the observed strength of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. The CPC’s next monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for December 10.